A Case Study of Analyzing & Predicting A1C Changes Using Math-Physics Medicine

The author had two hemoglobin A1C checkups: 6.1% on 9/1/2017 and 6.9% on 2/1/2018.

Figure 1: 90-days Average Glucose Results

He selected two equal length periods of 453 days with 1,369 meals each: Period A (4/1/2017 – 8/31/2017) and Period B (9/1/2017 – 1/31/2018). He utilized math-physics approach to analyze his A1C and lifestyle.

Figure 2: Period of 4/1/17 to 8/31/17 Results
Figure 3: Period of 9/1/17 to 1/28/18 Results

In Period B, weight increased 7 lbs. and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) increased 16 mg/dL which caused 4 mg/dL increase on daily glucose and 0.32% increase on A1C. For the A1C, 0.28% was due to weight gain and 0.04% was due to other secondary factors, e.g. stress, jet lag, and illness.

His postprandial glucose (PPG) increased 8 mg/dL which caused 6 mg/dL increase on daily glucose and 0.48% increase on A1C. Two major factors were carbs/sugar intake (additional 3 grams) and exercise reduction (less 300 steps) due to hot and rainy weather. Food and exercise contributed 76% to his PPG change and caused 0.36% of A1C increase. The other secondary factors, including weather, illness, travel, jet lag, caused 0.12% of A1C increase.

In summary, 0.32% from FPG (from weight increase) and 0.48% from PPG (from dinning out more) made his A1C rise to 0.8%.

Here is the comparison for the two periods:

Period A
Dinning outside 79 times (18% of total)
Glucose: 124 mg/dL
Carbs & sugar: 24 grams.
Walking: 4,700 steps

Period B
Dinning outside 146 times (32% of total)
Glucose: 122 mg/dL
Carbs & sugar: 23 grams.
Walking: 4,400 steps