Math-Physical Medicine

NO. 289

Risk Probability of Atherosclerosis, Cardiovascular Disease, and Stroke during the COVID-19 period

Corresponding Author: Gerald C. Hsu, eclaireMD Foundation, USA.

This paper describes the author’s assessment on risk probability of having atherosclerotic conditions, CVD, and stroke during COVID-19 period in comparison to three other years from 1/1/2017 to 12/31/2019, using GH-Method: math-physical medicine.  Special attention has been placed on the COVID-19 quarantine period from 1/1/2020 to 6/30/2020.

The author spent ~30,000 hours over the past 10 years, from 2010 to 2020, to conduct his research on chronic diseases and complications, along with endocrinology, specifically focusing on metabolism and glucose. He specifically focused on six chronic diseases, i.e. obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, CVD & stroke, and chronic kidney disease.  In 2014, he allotted the entire year to develop a complex mathematical metabolism model which includes 4 body output categories (weight, glucose, blood pressure, lipids) and 6 body input categories (food, water, exercise, sleep, stress, daily life routine regularity).  By the end of 2014, he has finally developed a mathematical metabolism model embedded in a specially designed application software (“eclaireMD”) on the iPhone for his daily use in order to maintain his health status.

The framework of his mathematical risk probability model of having atherosclerotic conditions, CVD, and stroke includes the following four parts with brief descriptions:

  1. Genetics: includes age, race, family health and medical history.
  2. Personal background:  includes personal bad habits , obesity, and personal medical history.
  3. Artery blockage or rupture due to diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and other medical conditions.
  4. Lifestyle management details: includes exercise, water intake, sleep, stress, food and meals, and regularity of daily life routines.

Based on the four parts and his collected big data, he then established certain assumptions, conditions, guidelines, and mathematical models based on his 10-years of research from biomedical books and journals, along with his own research work, to calculate an ultimate result and the risk probability percentage.

His focused on the impact of COVID-19 quarantine lifestyle on his risk probability of having atherosclerotic conditions, CVD, and stroke by using his data from 1/1/2020 to 6/30/2020.

Here are the results:

  • Weight: 172 lbs. (78 kg), BMI 25
  • Glucose: 111 mg/dL (6.2 mmol/L)
  • SBP/DBP/HR: 109/61/60
  • HDL/LDL/triglycerides: 49/123/110
  • Walk steps: 16,361/day, 4377/meal
  • Water intake: 2975 cc per day
  • Sleep: 7.3 hours, wake up 1.2 times
  • Stress: stress less life (99.99%)
  • Food: portion 69%, quality 99%
  • Daily life routine: very regular

COVID-19 is more than 100 times worse than SARS that occurred in 2003, in terms of its spreading speed, fatality number, and emotional impact on the world population.  During this time, the author has achieved better results on his risk probability of having atherosclerotic conditions, cardiovascular disease, and stroke.  The knowledge and experience he has acquired in the past 10 years of medical research and his developed MI model, diabetes prediction tools, and risk models of diabetes complications have assisted him in many ways.


  1. Joshua A. Davis, “COVID-19 at NYPH: What Are the Basics of the Disease, Symptoms and Risk Factors for Non-Critically Ill Patients?” New York-Presbyterian Hospital, New York video, April 17, 2020,
  2. Gerald C. Hsu, eclaireMD Foundation, USA. March 2019. “Linkage among metabolism, immune system, and various diseases using GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 235).”
  3. Gerald C. Hsu, eclaireMD Foundation, USA. May 2020. “Building up fundamental strength to fight against COVID-19 for patients with chronic diseases and complications using GH-Method: Math-Physical Medicine (No. 253).”
  4. Gerald C. Hsu, eclaireMD Foundation, USA, “Relationship between metabolism and risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke, risk of chronic kidney disease, and probability of pancreatic beta cells self-recovery using GH-Method: Math-Physical Medicine ( 259).”