Math-Physical Medicine

NO. 018

Using GH-Method: math-physical medicine to Study the Risk Probability of Having a Heart Attack or Stroke Based on Combination of Medical Conditions, Lifestyle Management, and Metabolism Index

Corresponding Author: Gerald C. Hsu, eclaireMD Foundation, USA.

The author has extended his 8.5-year T2D research along with ~1.5M data he collected to examine the relationship among medical  conditions, lifestyle management, metabolism index, and the risk probability of having a  ardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke.

In 2014, he researched and built a mathematical metabolism model to measure the multiple interactions of four metabolic disease outputs and six lifestyle inputs with ~500 elements.

Initially, he chose static conditions, such as age, gender, race, and family history; with semi-static convictions, such as smoking, drinking, substance abuse, personal medical history, weight, and waistline to establish a “static” baseline.  He then applied the hemodynamics concept he learned to develop a “dynamic” macro-simulated model for blood blockage (using fluid dynamics concept) and artery rupture (using solid mechanics concept).

He utilized 414,050 data which include 81,900 medical conditions (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia) and 332,150 lifestyle conditions (food, exercise, water, sleep, stress, daily life routine) within 2,555 days (1/1/2012 – 12/31/2018) to compute three different sets of risk probabilities separately.  Finally, he integrated them into one overall risk probability.  He also conducted sensitivity analyses to cover the variance of probability by using different weighting factors (WF).

The risk probabilities of having a CVD or Stroke are:

  • 74% in 2000 (followed by three cardiac episodes 2001-2006)
  • From 74% in 2012 decrease to
  • 33% in 2018.  It should be noted that, based on metabolic conditions alone, it reached to 26.4% in 2017 (compatible with 26.7% by Framingham Studies)
  • WF sensitivity: +/- 10% to +/- 18%

The mathematical simulation results are validated by his past 17-years health examination reports.  This big data based dynamic simulation approach using GH-Method: math-physical medicine will provide an early warning to patients with chronic disease of having a heart attack (CVD) or stroke in the future.